COA Analysis and Training Exercise in One-Hour Wargames

"Based on our Wargaming - and my cool facial hair - this is the best COA, Sir"

fom https://warontherocks.com/

OK, but what would Neil Thomas think...?

In the 1:1 scale Army, a COA [ko-uh] is a Course Of Action. During the decision making process, COAs are wargamed to see what the likely outcomes are and evaluate problems. Wargamers rarely get into COA analysis for several reasons, IMHO:

1. They don't know how and can't be bothered - it's just a game,
2. They don't have the time. They'd rather just game it out. Arguably, that results in an analysis of the COA but it usually inaccurate due to it being a "success assessment" rather than "a probable outcome assessment".
3. They don't know the rules well enough to perform an analysis,
4. Related Point: Most miniatures rules take too long to play out and are too hard to analyze - they have so many variables, it would take almost as long as to play it out, anyway,
5. Related Point. Most games don't know how to calculate the odds in their games.

But in  One-Hour wargames, there's A LOT more time to think, since the game plays much faster. Also, since the mechanics are simpler, it is easier to average out the results. The only variable is the combat mechanisms, which use a 6-sided die. The average roll is a 3.5, so to minimize chance for the thinking process, on an odd turn the dice could all roll 3's and on an even turn the dice could all be 4's. Units inflict d6-2, d6, or d6+2 Hits, resulting in 1.5, 3.5 and 5.5 Hits on average, depending on their attack ability. This example assumes we are using the OHW rules mostly as-is.

How do we visualize this in a scenario?

Take Scenario #12: An Unfortunate Oversight. This requires some important decisions be made regarding the base of fire and the maneuver elements of the attacking side.

One of the key questions the Attacker has to decide is what forces oppose the town, if any, and what cross the ford to attack the hill. Fire units - Guns, Artillery, Mortars, etc - are obvious choices to leave on the original side of the river, safe from a Defender's counter-attack, and doing what they do best, providing fire support. But seizing the town would provide an excellent, protected base of fire against the hill!  What to do?  A COA analysis, of course!

It should be noted that ALL fractions in OHW are rounded up in favor of shooter / attacker. So even a 1.25 or less is rounded UP. I'm OK with this since it takes into account fatigue and such related to being under fire at all, much less actually taking casualties.

In the Horse and Musket rules, the Fire of the various units is as follows:

- Artillery, Skirmishers d6-2 [average of 1.5 Hits/Turn, rounded up to 2]
- Infantry, d6 [average of 3.5 Hits/Turn, rounded up to 4]

- Cavalry have no Fire ability. However, they Charge for d6+2 Hits.

So, two batteries of Guns and an Infantry Unit, inflict an average of 8 Hits per turn, enough to destroy one Unit in 2-3 turns with a bit of luck [all Units have 15 Hits]. However, against a Unit in a Town, all Hits are halved. This averages out to 4 Hits/Turn, or four Turns to destroy an occupying Unit. 

Below: The Russian Artillery inflicts 1.5 Hits [green '1', black '5'] a turn. This rounds up to either 4 Hits against a Unit in the open [red '4' above] or two against the town [red '2' on ruler]. The Russian Infantry Fire for 3.5 Hits [green '3', black '5'] a turn, rounding up to 4 Hits halved against the town. Net is 4 Hits against the unit in the town a turn. The unit in the town will be destroyed in 4 Turns on average.

Above. Opposing them is a French Infantry Unit, which Fires at the Russian Infantry for full effect of 3.5 Hits/Turn [blue 3, black 5] rounded up to 4. This means it will inflict about 12 Hits on the Russians [who shoot first each turn] before being destroyed on Turn 4. However, with a bit of luck the French might destroy the Russian Infantry by rolling a little high, before being finished off by the Artillery.

Luck aside [I know, for some of you this is hopelessly optimistic!] This means that the Russians will move into the town on Turn 5, albeit with a battered infantry Unit with 11 Hits.

What will this look like as a training exercise on the wargame table?

Setting aside luck and rolling averages of 3 one turn, and 4 on another turn for all participants, we get our average of 3.5 for all dice - some of you may want to play all your games like this!

Turn 1. Cavalry spearhead the flanking maneuver across the ford, followed by two Infantry.  Guns and third Infantry inflict four Hits on French Infantry, while receiving 4 Hits on the Russian Infantry.

Turn 2. Russian Cavalry menace the hill's flank and rear. Infantry continue to advance. All Fire dice are a '3' and rounding give the Russians 4 Hits on the French while the French get 3 Hits. Note: the rounding up gives a slight advantage to having multiple units firing.

Turn 3. Russian Cavalry seize the hill [in this unopposed exercise] while the Infantry advance to support by Fire and seize the objective. The town fight has the French at 12/15 Hits, and the Russian Infantry at 11/15 Hits.

Turn 4. Russians are on the objective. If Opposed, they would be engaged a bit to the lower right by French occupying the hill. Still, we can see the timing involved. At the Town, the French Infantry are destroyed and do not Fire in their half of the Turn.

Turn 5. Russians advance into the town. Artillery may be turned onto the main effort against the hill.

Analysis

Seizing the town most likely takes too long, and requires too many resources - fully half the force needs all its firepower to advance into the town by Turn 5. Granted, with a little luck they may advance in on Turn 4, but that still has the Russian Infantry firing out from the far end against the French no sooner than Turn 6.

Meanwhile, the guns are not Firing in support of the main effort, having spent 1/3 of the game supporting what is only a Supporting Effort. At an average of 4 Hits/Turn, they could destroy one enemy Unit in the main battle by Turn 4 or so, or provide key supporting fire to their own Infantry and destroying a second with their supporting Fire.

The Victory Condition is the hill, not the town or the road. Note that if the victory condition WAS the town, or clearing the road, this would be the main effort. In this case the flanking effort at the ford would be only the Supporting Effort and perhaps have its forced reduced or its movement delayed.

Conclusions

In most gaming events, the players arrive at the hosts venue and see the table for the first time. The scenario is then explained and they've a few minutes to decide on a Course of Action. With a simpler game and scenario, it is much easier to distribute the scenario in advance, representing the staff and general evaluating the scenario as the force moves towards the battlefield. This in turn allows players to actually move the units in the battle space, or at least make some measurements to determine what the timing looks like. 

If players are familiar with the combat power of their units, i.e. the combat mechanics, they can still develop a plan based upon the known movement rates and likely combat results.

Finally

I think if more wargamers did this occasionally, they would be better wargamers, and they would also learn something about how real military staffs and commanders evaluate situations and develop Courses of Action leading to a Plan. With a quick-playing game like OHW, this is much easier to do. So collect your staff and get planning!